China's export tax bombshell rocks aluminium market
BEIJING, Nov. 15 -- China announced on Friday that it will cancel export tax rebates for aluminum jumbo roll, small roll, pop-up sheets and foil wraps, effective from Dec. 1.
LONDON, Nov 18 (Reuters) - China's announcement that it will end tax rebates on exports of aluminium semi-manufactured products caused market mayhem on Friday and may have major long-term ramifications for the global aluminium supply chain.
The Shanghai price sank and the London price surged as traders factored in the potential annual loss of over 5 million metric tons of Chinese products in the international market.
That's a worst-case scenario and the reality may turn out to be less dramatic, depending on how China's aluminium processors cope with what for many is a loss of vital income.
China's Export aluminum foil price rises! The cost of aluminum foil exported by Zhejiang Artisans New Material Technology Co.,Ltd. will increase by approximately 13% starting November 15th, 2024. This price adjustment is due to the following reasons:
- Aluminum Foil Price Rises Because of Policy Change on Export Tax Rebates:
For decades, China has provided a 13% export tax rebate subsidy for aluminum foil products, and manufacturers have factored this rebate into their pricing. However, on November 15, 2024, the Chinese government announced the cancellation of the export tax rebate for aluminum foil and related products. - Supply Chain Impact:
The cancellation of the tax rebate has immediately raised the production costs for aluminum foil exporters in China by 13%–15%.
This policy change will have notable effects on the global aluminum foil supply chain, demand, and market pricing.
Impact Analysis
For the Chinese Market:
The direct production cost of household aluminum foil rolls, pop-up foil sheets, hookah foil, hairdressing foil, and other products manufactured in China will rise by 13%–15%.
For Importers of Aluminum Foil Raw Materials from China:
Distributors or manufacturers that rely on large rolls of aluminum foil from China to produce smaller household foil products, pop-up sheets, or specialized foils in their own countries will also face a direct production cost increase of 13%–15%.
For Global Aluminum Foil Distributors:
Countries importing aluminum foil or related raw materials from other regions may encounter indirect cost changes. With China's export volumes reduced due to the rebate cancellation, global demand for aluminum ingots is expected to rise. This could lead to higher aluminum prices worldwide, creating a pricing gap between Chinese and foreign products. The ripple effect may increase production costs across the global aluminum foil market, impacting sales prices and competitiveness.
For Aluminum Foil Containers:
Notably, the export tax rebate policy for aluminum foil trays remains unchanged. However, suppliers relying on Chinese raw materials to produce containers may still see a 13% increase in costs as the rebate cancellation affects raw material rolls. These products may lose their competitive edge against domestically manufactured alternatives.
Summary and Company Policy Updates
The cancellation of China’s export tax rebate for aluminum foil products will lead to higher supply chain and retail costs globally. However, China remains a dominant supplier of aluminum foil products, such as household foil rolls, pop-up sheets, hairdressing foil, and hookah foil.